NZUS93 KDLH 012008
LLLDLH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Duluth MN
308 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Key Messages: 

System arrives tonight bringing with it rain showers and potentially a rumble of thunder
Another quick system arrives Friday and into Saturday before quick dry stretch for a few days
Increasing warmth and moisture to start next week with the chance for some thunderstorms. 

Short term:
A pleasant spring day is in store for much of the Northland to begin the month of May. Temperatures will top off in the 50s to lower 60s with scattered clouds and light winds out of the west. Through the afternoon and into this evening, we should see cloud coverage increase as a result of a shortwave trough moving into our area. Precipitation will slowly encroach from SW to NE late tonight and into early tomorrow morning. It will initially be battling some drier air near the surface but should quickly overcome it as better lift from the shortwave moves into Minnesota by early Thursday AM. Rain will overspread the region through early morning and into the afternoon as it peaks in intensity and coverage. We have higher confidence in solid rain with the potential for rumbles of thunder south of a line stretching from the Brainerd Lakes to Duluth and east towards the South Shore. Elsewhere in the CWA, showers and more sporadic rain would be the favored mode of precipitation throughout the day. Most of the rain should be gone Thursday evening as the system moves into Canada. We still could see some showers behind it as the surface low becomes fully stacked with the upper level trough. This will create steep lapse rates with enough moisture that could give us some gusty showers on Friday especially closer to the Canadian Border and towards North-Central MN. 

Extended Range: 
As the Thursday system slowly leaves us behind, another quick moving shortwave will move into the area late Friday and into Saturday. A banded area of precipitation that’s orientated NE/SW will quickly enter the area Friday night and completely exit the CWA by Saturday Afternoon. Nothing substantial is expected out of this system except some light rain showers. By the end of the 72 hour time period (Thu - Sat), most areas will see 0.15 - 0.40” of rain with isolated areas (particularly in NW Wisconsin) seeing upwards of 0.5”. Sunday will see quieter conditions with a high pressure moving over the area. Winds will shift from easterly to more southerly leading to much of the area seeing highs top off in the low 60s. Monday for the most part will be similar with temperatures touching into the low 70s and winds till coming from the south. As we head into Monday night and into Tuesday, our weather will get decidedly more active. Ensembles are in agreement that a potent trough will move onshore this weekend before ejecting into the Central Plains early next week. A sub 990mb low will move into the plains and allow for substantial moisture advection northward. Many differences exist at this point in time but with that in mind, we are confident that heavy rain and even thunderstorms are possible at this point in time early next week. Furthermore, enough shear will be present suggesting that some of the storms could even be strong at times if enough instability can be realized.


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