WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (MALOU) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 30.0N 144.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 75 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 212 NM NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 36 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT THE
TYPHOON IS NOW IN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION STAGE, WITH THE
INNER CORE QUICKLY APPROACHING A SHARPLY-DEFINED COLD FRONT JUST
TO THE NORTH. THE COOL, DRY MID-LATITUDE AIR MASS TO THE WEST CAN
NOW BE SEEN WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, DENOTED BY A
DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE EYE STRUCTURE HAS COLLAPSED, AND A RAGGED AREA OF
MODERATE CONVECTION NOW OBSCURES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A SYNTHETIC
APERTURE RADAR (SAR) PASS FROM 282021Z INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM
WINDS WERE AROUND 80 KT AT THE TIME, AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
SET A LITTLE LOWER AT 75 KT DUE TO THE ONGOING DECAY IN SATELLITE
PRESENTATION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 76 KTS AT 282055Z
   CIMSS ADT: 69 KTS AT 282040Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: DRY, COOL AIR IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLES

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS NOW
EXPECTED TO OCCUR MORE QUICKLY, COMPLETING WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: RAPID WEAKENING IS BEGINNING AS TYPHOON 25W
(MALOU) MERGES WITH THE NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TRANSLATES
NORTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER WATERS, WHICH WILL ALSO RESULT IN A
QUICK TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE VORTEX WILL LOSE
VERTICAL COHERENCE BY THAT TIME AS IT BECOMES BAROCLINIC IN
NATURE. THE JTWC FORECAST TERMINATES AT 24 HOURS AS MALOU BECOMES
A GALE-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WELL EAST OF HOKKAIDO.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AS IS THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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