WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (KAMMURI)
WARNING
NR 040//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
342 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED IN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS
FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL, DRY NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION APPARENT IN A 051119Z SSMIS
37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LACK
OF CONVECTION AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A RJTD DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 1.5 (25KTS). TD 29W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE FLOW OF A NORTHEAST SURGE
EVENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF COOL, DRY AIR FROM THE
NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WINDS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IN EXCESS OF
30KTS WILL REMAIN AS TC 29W DISSIPATES, HOWEVER THESE WINDS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT, AND NOT FROM TD 29W.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET ENSEMBLE WHICH
REMAINS AN EASTERN OUTLIER. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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