WDPN31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR
14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KUNSAN AB, KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A
191211Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A BROAD, DEFINED CENTER WITH A CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER
THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 45
KNOTS BASED ON A 191027Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 43 KNOTS. OVERALL, THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 191041Z GMI
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE WIND FIELD REMAINS ASYMMETRIC AND
EXPANSIVE WITH CONVERGENT GALE-FORCE WINDS FUELING THE PERSISTENT
HEAVY CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE WIND RADII
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL WIND RADII CONSENSUS (RVCN) AND
REFLECTS THE EXTENSIVE SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS. TS 06W IS
TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 06W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 75NM AT TAU 24, THEREFORE, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK ALTHOUGH THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION DUE TO THE
BROAD NATURE OF THE CENTER. AS TS 06W APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF SOUTH KOREA NEAR TAU 12, IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WITH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER TAU 12
AS IT TRACKS ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE
COMPLETELY BY TAU 36.//
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