WDPN31 PGTW 051500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 040// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 342 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED IN AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL, DRY NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION APPARENT IN A 051119Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LACK OF CONVECTION AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 1.5 (25KTS). TD 29W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE FLOW OF A NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD, WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF COOL, DRY AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WINDS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IN EXCESS OF 30KTS WILL REMAIN AS TC 29W DISSIPATES, HOWEVER THESE WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT, AND NOT FROM TD 29W. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET ENSEMBLE WHICH REMAINS AN EASTERN OUTLIER. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN