WDPN31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE)
WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 268 NM
WEST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) WHICH SHOWS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LLC CENTER AND IN A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE RAIN
BAND TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE
PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.0-T1.5 (25 KTS). THE UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (28-29 CELSIUS) SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 03W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR UNTIL DISSIPATING BELOW
WARNING THRESHOLD AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR DAVAO, PHILIPPINES BY
TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, AND ALTHOUGH TD
03W IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD BY TAU 24, THERE IS
A CHANCE THE REMNANTS WILL RE-CONSOLIDATE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
BASED ON THE SPREAD REACHING 166 NM BY TAU 36, CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS FAIR.//
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