WDPN32 PGTW 020300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI) WARNING NR
023A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 41.7N 148.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 339 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 36 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN
INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CORE, NOW PRIMARILY NORTH AND
EAST OF THE LLCC AS SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES, BUT A
COMPACT WIND FIELD AND WARM-CORE STRUCTURE REMAIN INTACT. THE
CYCLONE THUS CONTINUES TO BE ASSESSED AS TROPICAL. CLOUD TOPS ARE
WARMING AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF AGENCY DVORAK
AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. AN EARLIER
012034Z SMAP PASS REVEALED THAT THE CYCLONE STILL HAD TYPHOON-FORCE
WINDS AT THAT TIME, BUT SOME WEAKENING IS PRESUMED TO HAVE OCCURRED
SINCE, AS THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING OVER PROHIBITIVELY COLD WATERS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SMAP DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RCTP: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 69 KTS AT 012227Z
   CIMSS ADT: 104 KTS AT 012330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 16-18 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK EASTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL STORM 19W (JEBI) IS ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND IS NOW OVER COLD
WATERS NORTH OF THE KUROSHIO CURRENT. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMMINENTLY, COMPLETING IN 12-24 HOURS, AND STEADY
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THAT PERIOD. HOWEVER, MAX WINDS MAY
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE GALE FORCE BY THE TIME EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
OCCURS. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT JEBI WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION EAST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
IN 24 HOURS, BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERN FLANK OF A
BAROCLINIC LOW DEVELOPING WEST OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AT THAT
TIME.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
EXTRATROPICAL WIND FIELD EXPECTED BY GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH

4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED DVORAK FIXES TO VALID
TIME.//
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