WDPN34 PGTW 052100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 30.3N 136.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 386 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SASEBO, JAPAN MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED NORTH OF CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM TS 14W LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR, AS WELL AS A 051654Z AMSR2 36GHZ PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE, HEDGED LOWER THAN ADT AND SATCON ESTIMATES. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH TS 14W LOCATED APPROX. 388 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS KNES: T1.0 - 25 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 051637Z CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 051750Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD OTHER FACTORS: OUTFLOW FROM TS 14W IS INDUCING VWS AND MASS CONVERGENCE OVER THE TOP OF TD 12W. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT BECOMES CAPTURED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BY TS 14W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 388 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST. BY TAU 12 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY CAPTURED WITHIN THE PRESSURE FIELD OF TS 14W AS THEY APPROACH APPROXIMATELY 255 NM AWAY FROM EACH OTHER. ONCE TD 12W IS CAPTURED BY THE LARGER, DOMINANT FLOW OF TS 14W, IT WILL SLOWLY TRACK INWARD AND ULTIMATELY BECOME ABSORBED INTO TS 14W. IN ADDITION, DRY AIR IS PREVALENT IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE DISSIPATION SCENARIO. MODEL DISCUSSION: THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS DUE TO CURRENT SATELLITE ANALYSIS WHICH REVEALED A MORE POLEWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS THUS A BLEND OF AVAILABLE VORTEX TRACKERS AND ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS, LEADING TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. SIMILAR TO THE TRACK FORECAST, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN