WDPN35 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR
37/
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 349 NM
NORTHEAST OF YONGSAN AIN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 36 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON A WEAKENING
TREND IN SUBTROPICAL-METHOD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T1.5 (25 KTS) BY PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM LIES IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25-35 KTS) VWS
AND COOL (26 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST,
TAPPING INTO THE MIDLATITUDE JET JUST TO THE NORTH, BUT IS NOT
ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE STRONG SHEAR, AND SO 22W CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
THE SYSTEM IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST, UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MIDLATITUDE JET AND THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY STR TO ITS SOUTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS 22W WILL BEGIN TO UNDERGO
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE MIDLATITUDE JET AND BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND IS EXPECTED TO
COMPLETE THE TRANSITION BY TAU 36, AS THE SYSTEM PASSES NORTHEAST OF
HOKKAIDO. INCREASING VWS, COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY COOL SSTS, WILL
COMBINE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH ETT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
120NM OF NORTH-SOUTH SPREAD AT TAU 36 AND CLOSE AGREEMENT IN TRACK
SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.//
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