WTIO30 FMEE 281235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/9/20232024
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 9 (GAMANE)

2.A POSITION 2024/03/28 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 47.4 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1010 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/03/29 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 49.1 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2024/03/29 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 50.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER

36H: 2024/03/30 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 120

48H: 2024/03/30 12 UTC: 17.3 S / 53.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 130

60H: 2024/03/31 00 UTC: 18.2 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

72H: 2024/03/31 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 55.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2024/04/01 12 UTC: 17.1 S / 55.4 E, VENT MAX= 015 KT,
DISSIPATING


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
IN THE LAST FEW HOURS, GAMANE HAS CONTINUED TO STAGNATE JUST OUTSIDE
MADAGASCAR IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL OFF MAROMANDJA.THE ASCAT PASS AT
0630Z CONFIRMED THIS OUTFLOW, WITH A LOOSE STRUCTURE AND MAXIMUM
NON-CONVECTION WINDS OF 20KT.AFTER AN UPTURN IN CONVECTION AT MIDDAY,
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AGAIN IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.GAMANE
REMAINS A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER WITH WINDS OF 20KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THERE ARE FEW DIFFERENCES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES, BOTH IN THE
SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM, GIVEN THE WIDE DISPERSION OF GUIDANCE.
GAMANE'S MOVEMENT SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN TO MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THEN, AT THE END OF THE DAY OR EVENING ON FRIDAY, GAMANE
COULD EMERGE FROM THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN SAINTE MARIE
AND CAP EST. THE CURRENT TRACK FOR THE MADAGASCAR CROSSING IS BASED
ON THE Z850 FROM AROME, IFS AND GFS. THEN, CHANNELED BETWEEN A TROUGH
TO THE SOUTH AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST, A SOUTHEASTERLY SHIFT IS
FAVORED. FINALLY, ON SUNDAY EVENING OR MONDAY, IT COULD TURN BACK
TOWARDS THE NORTH-WEST. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS OF THE
EUROPEAN AND AMERICAN ENSEMBLE MODELS NOW SEEM TO BE LEANING TOWARDS
THIS SCENARIO. THE RSMC FORECAST IS THEREFORE BASED ON A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE AROME, IFS AND GFS MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, GAMANE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF A
DISTURBED ZONE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITHOUT REGAINING CONDITIONS
FOR INTENSIFICATION BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THEN, WHEN IT EMERGES,
DESPITE DECENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE HIGH SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT
THE SYSTEM'S REINTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL RUNS THAT
SUGGEST TEMPORARY INTENSIFICATION UP TO THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE ON
SATURDAY, BUT THIS IS NOT CURRENTLY THE MAJORITY SCENARIO. HOWEVER,
IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT PRESENT.THEN, FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS, INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND POSSIBLE INTRUSIONS OF
DRY AIR SHOULD FILL IN THE SYSTEM ONCE AND FOR ALL.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS:
- MADAGASCAR: RAINFALL TOTALS OF 100-150MM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN
THE DIEGO-SUAREZ AND TAMATAVE REGIONS. 200-300MM OVER THE NEXT 72H
POSSIBLE.
- MASCAREIGNES: RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO 100MM POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY,
PARTICULARLY OVER MAURITIUS.

CMRS IS STOPPING REGULAR MONITORING OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, AN ACTIVE
WATCH WILL BE MAINTAINED AND REGULAR BULLETINS MAY BE ISSUED IF THE
SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AGAIN TOMORROW. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20
FMEE).=