WTIO30 FMEE 161219 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 39/5/20242025 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI) 2.A POSITION 2025/01/16 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 30.6 S / 46.9 E (THIRTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 25 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/W 0.0/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 285 34 KT NE: 335 SE: 220 SW: 110 NW: 250 48 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 60 NW: 110 64 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 35 NW: 75 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2025/01/17 00 UTC: 32.9 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 405 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 270 34 KT NE: 220 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 140 48 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 55 NW: 55 64 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 45 24H: 2025/01/17 12 UTC: 34.4 S / 57.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 400 SE: 195 SW: 250 NW: 285 34 KT NE: 215 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 55 36H: 2025/01/18 00 UTC: 34.9 S / 64.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 250 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 130 48H: 2025/01/18 12 UTC: 35.1 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 270 SE: 165 SW: 165 NW: 260 34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 100 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=5.5+ CI=6.0- DIKELEDI HAS MAINTAINED ITS EYE CONFIGURATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, WITH A 3-HOUR AVERAGE DVORAK OF 5.5+. HOWEVER, VISIBLE AND INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE IS LESS AND LESS VISIBLE AS WIND SHEAR INCREASES. DIKELEDI REMAINS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS OF 95KT. CURRENTLY AT A LATITUDE OF 30.6S, DIKELEDI BECOMES THE MOST SOUTHERLY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN OUR DATABASE, ECLIPSING ANGREEK'S RECORD FROM LAST SEASON. LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN IN THE SHORT TERM BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH CIRCULATING FURTHER SOUTH, GENERATING A SOUTHWESTERLY SHIFT. FROM TONIGHT ONWARDS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL THICKEN AND DIKELEDI WILL CIRCULATE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE, HEADING DUE EAST. THERE IS LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SHAPE OF THE TRACK, BUT THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT DISPERSION BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT LEADERS IN TERMS OF SPEED. THE RSMC FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE FASTER IFS SCENARIO. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKEDELI UNTIL NOW IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW WIND SHEAR AND HIGH OCEAN POTENTIAL IS BEGINNING TO SUFFER THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR. IN THE COMING HOURS, WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER, ALLOWING INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR AROUND THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION, AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS, DIKEDELI SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FROM TOMORROW, WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. DIKEDELI SHOULD REACH THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW STAGE EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES A THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.=