WTIO30 FMEE 181848 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 35/6/20252026 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DUDZAI) 2.A POSITION 2026/01/18 AT 1800 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 64.1 E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.5/W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 130 34 KT NE: 75 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 75 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM): 12H: 2026/01/19 06 UTC: 21.5 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 175 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 35 24H: 2026/01/19 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 35 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30 36H: 2026/01/20 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SW: 205 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 48H: 2026/01/20 18 UTC: 26.4 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28 KT NE: 230 SE: 305 SW: 175 NW: 155 34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 85 48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45 64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35 60H: 2026/01/21 06 UTC: 30.1 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 28 KT NE: 285 SE: 350 SW: 140 NW: 215 34 KT NE: 185 SE: 215 SW: 110 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 35 72H: 2026/01/21 18 UTC: 35.9 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28 KT NE: 425 SE: 415 SW: 195 NW: 335 34 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 110 NW: 185 48 KT NE: 100 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 35 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK: NIL 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: PT=2.5 CI=3.5 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED WEAK WITHIN DUDZAI'S CIRCULATION, WITH RELATIVELY WARM CLOUD TOPS, MAINLY PRESENT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CENTRE REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO THE MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER, LATEST MICROWAVE PASSES (1327Z WSFM AND 1709Z GPM) SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. IN THE ABSENCE OF AVAILABLE ASCAT OR SAR DATA, THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST. DUDZAI HAS READJUSTED ITS COURSE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE. IT IS CURRENTLY PASSING CLOSEST TO RODRIGUES, APPROXIMATELY 150 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT COULD THEN PASS APPROXIMATELY 300 KM FROM MAURITIUS AND REUNION. ON TUESDAY, IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTH THEN SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE. OUR RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN MODELS, AMONG WHICH THERE IS NOW LITTLE SPREAD. REGARDING INTENSITY, THE SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE COMING HOURS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF REINTENSIFICATION OVER STILL RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE COULD THEREFORE BE REACHED BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF 30S LATITUDE OVER COOLER WATERS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT AND A MID-LATITUDE LOW. IMPACTS ON RODRIGUES : - VERY ROUGH SEAS WITH WAVES FROM 4 TO 6M UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. - HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE UP TO MONDAY MORNING. IMPACTS ON REUNION/MAURITIUS : - VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH 4M WAVES DURING MONDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.=