WTIO30 FMEE 211211
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 34/10/20222023
1.A FILLING UP 10 (FABIEN)

2.A POSITION 2023/05/21 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.2 S / 68.6 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY EIGHT    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2023/05/22 00 UTC: 12.4 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 85

24H: 2023/05/22 12 UTC: 13.7 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

36H: 2023/05/23 00 UTC: 14.5 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2023/05/23 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

60H: 2023/05/24 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

72H: 2023/05/24 12 UTC: 15.9 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAD RESUMED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT DURING
THE DAY IS WARMING UP, AND SHOULD DISAPPEAR AGAIN AT THE END OF THE
DAY. THE CIRCULATION CAN BE SEEN UNDER THE CIRRUS CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTH-EAST OF IT. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY IN THE ABSENCE OF OTHER DATA.
IN THE ABSENCE OF RELIABLE DATA SINCE THE LAST NETWORK, THE MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.

FABIEN IS CONTINUING ITS SLOW MOVEMENT GLOBALLY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST, WITH A STEERING FLOW DRIVEN BY A RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM,
INDUCING A MORE MERIDIAN TRAJECTORY NEXT NIGHT.
FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, WITH AN EXPECTED LOWERING OF THE LEVEL OF THE
STEERING FLOW, THE TRAJECTORY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE ORIENTED TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST. EVEN IF THERE IS A CONSENSUS ON THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE
TRAJECTORY, THERE IS STILL QUITE A LOT OF DISPERSION WITHIN THE
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS. IFS IN PARTICULAR PROPOSES A
FASTER DISPLACEMENT AND THEREFORE A MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY POSITION. THE
PRESENT FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MAIN MODELS, ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN IFS AND GFS.

BY MONDAY EVENING, THE SOUTH-WESTERN SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AGAIN
AND LEAD TO THE FINAL WEAKENING OF FABIEN. INDEED IN A VERY DRY
ENVIRONMENT AND WITH A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
FILL UP GRADUALLY.
THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ABOUT THE SYSTEM FABIEN EXCEPT
REINTENSIFICATION.=