WTIO30 FMEE 170627
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/1/20242025
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 1

2.A POSITION 2024/08/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 6.7 S / 71.2 E
(SIX    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2024/08/17 18 UTC: 6.9 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

24H: 2024/08/18 06 UTC: 7.1 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 285 SW: 165 NW: 0

36H: 2024/08/18 18 UTC: 7.3 S / 67.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

48H: 2024/08/19 06 UTC: 7.7 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=1.5 CI=1.5

OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS NOT ORGANIZED AND
THE STRONG WIND SHEAR (25-30KT ANALYZED BY CIMSS AT 00UTC) HAS LET
THE CENTER APPEAR. THE ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION IS GETTING LONGER AND
LONGER THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION, THE ASCAT PASS OF 0415 SHOWS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH WINDS OF 25KT IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT,
WITH A SMALL PORTION AT 30KT LINKED TO CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS
THEREFORE MAINTAINED AS A 30KT AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED ITS WEST-SOUTH-WEST COURSE,
STABILIZING ITS SPEED. FLUCTUATIONS IN SPEED ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS SHOWN BY THE STRONG EAST-WEST DISPERSION
OBSERVED IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THE STEERING FLOW OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN STEERING FLOW, CARRYING THE
SYSTEM IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY DIRECTION. IN VIEW OF THE
UNCERTAINTY OVER THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT, MODERATE CONFIDENCE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRACK FORECAST.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE WINDOW OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SEEMS TO BE
OVER. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE PROGRESSIVELY TODAY, SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH A TEMPORARY INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN NOW
AND SUNDAY CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THE PROBABILITY OF 01 REACHING THE
STAGE OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM SEEMS VERY LOW. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY FILL OUT IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER POSES A THREAT TO INHABITED LAND.

LAST BULLETIN UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION
REGARDS THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
AVAILABLE IN THE DAILY BULLETIN ON TROPICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN ISSUED AT 12Z (AWIO20 FMEE).=