WTPA42 PHFO 112052 TCDCP2 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 46 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023 1100 AM HST Fri Aug 11 2023 New deep convection continued to develop within the eyewall of Dora earlier this morning. However, more recent images showed that the eye has become cloud-filled. In addition, impacts of stronger vertical shear were becoming increasingly apparent, with the high level outflow being restricted in the southern quadrant and the cyclone's overall appearance in the upper levels becoming very asymmetric. Dora's center is on the limbs of the GOES-18 and Himawari fields of view. Microwave passes have helped with the center adjustments, but the long distance from the geostationary nadir points on both satellites coupled with the cloud-filled eye has resulted in a greater than usual uncertainty in the initial position. Dvorak fixes came in at 102 kt from PHFO, JTWC, and SAB. The ADT and AiDT estimates were 92 and 88 kt, respectively. Based on a blend of these estimates, and the degradation of Dora's appearance in the satellite images, the initial intensity for this advisory is lowered to 95 kt. The initial motion for this advisory is 295/16kt. This motion is expected to continue over the next 48 hours as Dora moves along the southwest flank of a deep layer anticyclone centered to the northeast. Dora's forward motion is expected to become slower gradually and turn more northwestward as it moves toward a weakness in the ridge produced by an upper level trough to the northwest. The spread of the guidance envelope is larger than previous advisories. This is likely due to differences in the location and strength of the upper level trough in the various models. The forecast track for this advisory has been shifted slightly south of the previous advisory and is aligned with the trend of the TVCE consensus. Dora's intensity is expected to continue to decrease through the forecast period. Based on the track forecast, SSTs under the tropical cyclone should remain above 28C. The main issue at this point is the strength of the vertical shear. GFS and ECMWF guidance shows an increase in the vertical shear over the next 48 hours. However, there are significant differences in shear strength, with the shear in the ECMWF remaining at moderate to strong levels beyond 48 hours, and the GFS shear becoming much weaker. The intensity forecast is generally in line with the previous advisory and is close to a blend of the HWRF, HMON, HAFS-A, and HAFS-B. This is the final advisory from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center on this system. The next bulletin will be issued by RSMC Tokyo, Japan unless re-entry or slow-down occurs. For U.S. interests, see the public advisories issued by the U.S. NWS Weather Forecast Office in Guam, and Department of Defense warnings issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Honolulu, Hawaii. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 15.3N 179.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 16.2N 178.7E 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 17.3N 176.4E 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 18.0N 174.4E 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 18.6N 172.5E 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 19.1N 170.7E 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 20.0N 169.2E 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 22.0N 167.5E 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 24.5N 166.5E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kodama