WTPN21 PHNC 240800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230800Z JUL 26//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.3N 98.8W TO 10.3N 103.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.3N 98.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.1N 98.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 98.9W, APPROXIMATELY 454NM
SOUTH OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AREA OF CONVECTION WITH
DISTINCT FORMATIVE BANDING AS WELL AS DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION
BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE AREA ARE
FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT 98E WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH THIS SUPERSEDES
REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 240800).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250800Z.
//
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