WTPN22 PHNC 062200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060230Z JUN 26//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 060230)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.5N 89.0W TO 11.0N 87.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.6N 88.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) IS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N
88.9W, APPROXIMATELY 191NM SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO MASACHAPA, NICARAGUA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING
CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IN THE
UPPER LEVELS, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 5-10KTS. GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF, AGREE ON
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS, THEN CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
072200Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 104.2W.//
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