WTPN52 PGTW 140300 WARNING ATCG MIL 15W NWP 231014010706 2023101400 15W BOLAVEN 029 01 045 39 SATL 060 T000 339N 1565E 080 R064 050 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 245 SE QD 230 SW QD 165 NW QD T012 393N 1634E 075 R064 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 250 SE QD 200 SW QD 210 NW QD T024 430N 1703E 070 R064 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 190 NE QD 205 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD R034 345 NE QD 320 SE QD 285 SW QD 220 NW QD AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 012HR EXTRATROPICAL 024HR EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 029 1. TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 33.9N 156.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 39 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 33.9N 156.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 39.3N 163.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 32 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 43.0N 170.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 345 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 320 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 285 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 35.2N 158.2E. 14OCT23. TYPHOON 15W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 597 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 39 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, POKING OUT FROM UNDER THE CONVECTION ENVELOPE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEAR APART. A 132159Z GMI MICROWAVE SUITE SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME COMPLETELY DECOUPLED BY THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE MSI ALSO SHOWS A BROAD EXPANSE OF CIRRUS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD, AND DEVELOPING FRONTAL BANDS EXTENDING EAST AND SOUTHWEST FROM THE CENTER, IN A CLASSIC EXTRATROPICAL LOW DEPICTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE FIX ESTIMATES AND EXTRAPOLATION OF A 131911Z SMOS PASS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO HAVE BEGUN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) PHASE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED BY THE OPEN-CELL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHWARD IN THE CLEAR AIR TO THE WEST. THE CLASSIC SHAPE OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD FLOWING UP TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PROVIDES ADDITIONAL CLUES THAT COMPLETION OF ETT IS IMMINENT. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT A BLAZING 40 KNOTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN A COUPLE OF KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STEERING GRADIENT WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. BUT OTHERWISE, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEAST GENERALLY TOWARDS THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TAU 24. BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOW AND TURN TO A MORE EAST OR EVEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AS IT TRACK ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO, BUT WELL SOUTH OF, THE ALEUTIANS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 140000Z IS 964 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 45 FEET. // 1523100518 73N1567E 15 1523100600 80N1565E 15 1523100606 85N1563E 20 1523100612 89N1561E 20 1523100618 92N1555E 20 1523100700 92N1550E 25 1523100706 90N1546E 30 1523100712 91N1541E 35 1523100718 93N1537E 35 1523100800 95N1532E 35 1523100806 99N1527E 40 1523100812 101N1520E 45 1523100818 104N1511E 50 1523100818 104N1511E 50 1523100900 108N1503E 55 1523100900 108N1503E 55 1523100906 112N1494E 55 1523100906 112N1494E 55 1523100912 120N1485E 55 1523100912 120N1485E 55 1523100918 130N1475E 60 1523100918 130N1475E 60 1523101000 137N1465E 70 1523101000 137N1465E 70 1523101000 137N1465E 70 1523101006 143N1455E 70 1523101006 143N1455E 70 1523101006 143N1455E 70 1523101012 152N1449E 80 1523101012 152N1449E 80 1523101012 152N1449E 80 1523101018 160N1445E 110 1523101018 160N1445E 110 1523101018 160N1445E 110 1523101100 171N1440E 140 1523101100 171N1440E 140 1523101100 171N1440E 140 1523101106 182N1434E 145 1523101106 182N1434E 145 1523101106 182N1434E 145 1523101112 189N1430E 155 1523101112 189N1430E 155 1523101112 189N1430E 155 1523101118 197N1429E 155 1523101118 197N1429E 155 1523101118 197N1429E 155 1523101200 206N1430E 150 1523101200 206N1430E 150 1523101200 206N1430E 150 1523101206 218N1433E 155 1523101206 218N1433E 155 1523101206 218N1433E 155 1523101212 228N1443E 155 1523101212 228N1443E 155 1523101212 228N1443E 155 1523101218 240N1454E 145 1523101218 240N1454E 145 1523101218 240N1454E 145 1523101300 256N1468E 125 1523101300 256N1468E 125 1523101300 256N1468E 125 1523101306 272N1487E 105 1523101306 272N1487E 105 1523101306 272N1487E 105 1523101312 294N1506E 95 1523101312 294N1506E 95 1523101312 294N1506E 95 1523101318 312N1532E 90 1523101318 312N1532E 90 1523101318 312N1532E 90 1523101400 339N1565E 80 1523101400 339N1565E 80 1523101400 339N1565E 80 NNNN