WTPQ30 RJTD 220600 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TD LOCATED AT 12.7N 125.7E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS IS LOCATED AT 12.7N, 125.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS POOR. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. 3.TRACK FORECAST THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA. 5.REMARKS AS THE TD IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS WILL BE THE FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR THE SYSTEM. =