WTPQ30 RJTD 030000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TS 2203 CHABA (2203)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS CHABA IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 23.6N, 110.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
  990HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
  AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
  HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
  INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED
  MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM
  THE CSC. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
  HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
  FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
  REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND.
  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
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