WTPQ30 RJTD 191800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS DANAS IS LOCATED AT 32.9N, 125.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
  ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS, GOOD
  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
  CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
  HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
  INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
  MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
  SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
  THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
  SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
  NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
  GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
  FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
  CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL
  THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
  TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY
  FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
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