WTPQ30 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.41 FOR TS 1928 KAMMURI (1928)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS KAMMURI IS LOCATED AT 13.1N, 113.6E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
  POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004HPA AND
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
  IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
  WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
  INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
  INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SURFACE WINDS DATA
  ESTIMATED FROM SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
  SYSTEM IS ONLY A VORTEX CONSISTING OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. WATER
  VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
  BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK
  FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
  AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
  TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS.
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