WTPQ30 RJTD 121200 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 2225 PAKHAR (2225) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS TS PAKHAR IS LOCATED AT 20.4N, 131.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVE BECOME OBSCURE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC. 3.TRACK FORECAST THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM. =