WTPQ30 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TD LOCATED AT 12.7N 125.7E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
   IS LOCATED AT 12.7N, 125.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION
  IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL
  ACCURACY IS POOR. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
  DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
  INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST
  SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
  INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
  SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
  STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE SCATTERED AROUND
  THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
  UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
  AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
  IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
  OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
  INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE JMA
  INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
5.REMARKS
  AS THE TD IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE UPGRADED TO TS INTENSITY IN THE
  NEXT 24 HOURS, THIS WILL BE THE FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR THE
  SYSTEM.
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