WTPQ32 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.46 FOR EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED AT 42N 173E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  NEOGURI (2519) HAS TRANSFORMED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
  EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOCATED AT 42N, 173E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
  WINDS ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
  DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS.
  THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
  INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
  ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A
  MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED.
  ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
  OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
  METOP-C/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
  CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
  MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
  PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
  CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
  SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM. SEE THE MARINE WARNING (WWJP27 RJTD).
5.REMARKS
  THIS WILL BE THE FINAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR THE SYSTEM.
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