WTPQ33 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 1818 RUMBIA (1818)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
  TS RUMBIA IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 31.7N, 116.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
  CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
  OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
  NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LAND
  AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
  OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
  ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
  SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
  CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
  UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
  AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
  IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
  THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
  OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE JMA
  INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
  INCLUDING GSM.
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