WTPS11 NFFN 151200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A04 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 151347 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE 988HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7S 171.4E AT
151200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
20 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 45 KNOTS. 

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                        AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT. 

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT WITH PRIMARY BANDS STRUGGLING TO
WRAP ONTO LLCC FROM NORTHEAST. ORGANISATION SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONE LIES IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. SST IS AROUND
28 DEGREES CELSIUS.

TAM IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON O.3 DEGREES
SHEAR PATTERN YEILDING DT OF 3.5, PT AND MET AGREE AT 3.0 BASED ON
FT. THUS YEILDING D3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE TAM SOUTH WEAKENING THE SYSTEM.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 27.3S 171.6E MOV S AT 23 KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 31.4S 169.7E MOV S AT 22 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TAM WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
152000UTC.