WTPS11 NFFN 151800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Nov 151948 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE MAL CENTRE 992HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0S 179.4E AT
151800 UTC.  POSITION GOOD BASED ON EIR AND IR IMAGERY, RADAR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 15 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

TC MAL LLCC EXPOSED WITH RAPID DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH COOLER AND DRY AIR INTRUSION OVER THE SYSTEM.
ORGANISATION REMAINS WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING ONTO BROAD WEAK
CENTER. TC MAL CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO AN AREA OF HIGH
SHEAR AND SST OF 25 DEGREES WITH CONTINUOUS WEAKENING . DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEARED PATTERN WITH CENTRE LESS THAN 3/4 DEGREES
WITH T2.5/3.0/W1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 26.1S 178.9W MOV SE AT 13KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 28.0S 176.7W MOV SE AT 13KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 29.7S 174.7W MOV SE AT 13KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 31.1S 173.1W MOV SE AT 13KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TC
MAL.