WTPS21 PGTW 172130 RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8S 138.6E TO 13.1S 140.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 171800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 138.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 137.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 138.6E, APPROXIMATELY 172 NM NORTHEAST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEP AND PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C), LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KT), DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 97P TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH DEVELOPMENT AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 182130Z. // 9725041512 87S1353E 25 9725041518 90S1353E 25 9725041600 96S1350E 25 9725041606 93S1346E 25 9725041612 87S1350E 25 9725041618 89S1362E 25 9725041700 89S1367E 25 9725041706 94S1370E 30 9725041712 97S1379E 30 9725041718 100S1386E 30 ????