WTPS32 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA) WARNING NR 006
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010000Z --- NEAR 15.6S 177.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 177.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 18.4S 179.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 178.1E.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 159
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY DETERIORATED OVER THE
PREVIOUS SIX HOURS, WITH WEAK FLARING CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE
ASSESSED CENTER. SATELLITE ANALYSIS DOES NOT REVEAL A WELL-DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), COMBINED WITH A LACK OF RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY, RESULTS IN A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT FOR
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE HEDGED TOWARDS THE ADT RAW T-NUMBER OF T2.6 36 KNOTS
BASED ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY TRANSLATE ALONG THE NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR TO THE EAST AND TC 15P TO THE
SOUTH, AND AFTER PASSING NEAR VANNA LEVU, IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 15 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNINGS
(WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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