WTPS53 PGTW 170300 WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 240217012324 2024021700 15P FIFTEEN 004 01 120 29 SATL 060 T000 234S 1550W 045 R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 125 SW QD 000 NW QD T012 273S 1521W 045 R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 030 NW QD AMP 000HR EXTRATROPICAL 012HR EXTRATROPICAL SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 004 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 23.4S 155.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 29 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 155.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 27.3S 152.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY SUBTROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 24.4S 154.3W. 17FEB24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 29 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THAT 15P HAS COMPLETED SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT), AS EVIDENCED BY THE VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION BEING SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST EXPOSING THE ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ADDITIONALLY, MANUAL AND AUTOMATED PHASE CLASSIFICATION WORKSHEETS SUPPORT THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM HAS COMPLETED STT WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS. 15P IS FORECASTED TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO ITS POSITION BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST. 15P HAS INTENSIFIED TO 45 KTS AS SHOWN IN A 161957Z ASCAT IMAGE, BUT WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE ONCE IT STARTS TO INTERACT WITH THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 170000Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 20 FEET.// 1524021400 148S1687W 25 1524021406 153S1682W 25 1524021412 156S1677W 25 1524021418 159S1671W 25 1524021500 161S1665W 30 1524021506 162S1660W 30 1524021512 165S1654W 35 1524021518 170S1645W 35 1524021600 178S1633W 40 1524021606 191S1619W 40 1524021612 206S1603W 40 1524021618 220S1577W 45 1524021700 234S1550W 45 NNNN