WTXS21 PGTW 132200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.6S 84.4E TO 6.1S 78.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 3.8S
84.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
3.0S 84.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.8S 84.2E, APPROXIMATELY 731 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, UK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 131957Z 165.5 GHZ ATMS IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY OBSCURED LLC WITH
WRAPPING BANDED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20) VWS, GOOD EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW,
AND WARM SST (29-30C).  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 12-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO
32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
142200Z.
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