WWZM40 NFFN 241200
 
Special Advisory Number TEN  for Samoa on T WILMA ISSUED FROM RSMC
NADI
Jan 24/1444 UTC 2011 UTC.
 
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILMA CENTRE 985HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 171.5W AT
241200 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT
ABOUT 11 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 65 KNOTS BY 250000UTC. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN
50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRLE AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES
OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AROUND THE LLCC DUE TO CLOUD TOP WARMING IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND TIGHTLY WRAPPING AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW
GOOD FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BUT DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. CIMSS INDICATES A MODERATELY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE CYCLONE'S PROJECTED PATH. SST AROUND 28C.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.8 LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT 3.5 MET=4.0
PT=4.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS
MOVE CYCLONE WILMA SOUTHWEST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 250000 UTC 19.0S 174.0W MOV SW AT 15 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 251200 UTC 20.7S 176.7W MOV SW AT 15 KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 260000 UTC 22.0S 179.0W MOV WSW AT 12 KT WITH 65
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 261200 UTC 23.0S 179.6E MOV SW AT 10 KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
FOR SAMOA:
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.
THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR SAMOA ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILMA.